Impact Prediction


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The introductory section of this report have provided an understanding of the project design, related activities and anticipated physical changes that would be associated with the proposed Oman - India Gas Pipeline Project. The preceding section presents the identification, evaluation and valuation of potential wildlife habitats en route the proposed pipeline project.

The objective of this section is to focus on the implications of project related actions on the environment which for the purpose of this study would remain confined to the biological environment around the project area.

This section provides the basis for predictive and approaches that have been considered for the assessment of the project impacts on wilderness values of the proposed pipeline corridor and also provides an assessment of the significance of these impacts.

Evaluation of impact involve linking of project actions to the probable changes that these impacts would induce in the biological environment. As is obvious, most of these changes in the biological environment can only be anticipated based on past and current ecological trends, and therefore predictive approaches and techniques are generally adopted for their evaluation. The soundness of the predictive ability is governed in such cases by professional judgement, past experience of related projects and some basic assumptions.

The two basic assumptions that have been made in predicting the impacts of pipeline projects on biological components are:

(i) Disturbances resulting from project actions during the construction phase would be uniform all along the pipeline length.

(ii) Biological values and habitat features determine the significance of predictive impacts.

The anticipated key pipeline project activities that are capable of altering the biological environment are as follow:

  • Removal of vegetal cover in the acquired Right-of-Way.
     

  • Surface excavation.
     

  • Blasting and drilling.
     

  • Trenching and subsequent filling.
     

  • Creation of storage facilities for material.
     

  • Creation of new access routes.
     

  • Movement of project staff and labour force.
     

  • Camping of staff and labour.
     

  • Transportation of equipment and material.
     

  • Drilling, welding and hydrotesting.

4.1 IMPACTS ON TERRESTRIAL HABITATS

The resiliency, intactness and richness of ecosystem types can be influenced by one or several of the disorders that are anticipated during different phases of the proposed project. Habitat alteration, resulting from degradation, destruction, reduction and fragmentation is a major impact that is anticipated on the biological environment.

The impact on the faunal components would largely result one or all of the following factors.

  • Changes in population density.
     

  • Changes in species diversity.
     

  • Survival of rare and endangered floral and faunal species.
     

  • Destruction of breeding and nesting sites.
     

  • Qualitative and quantitative changes in food and water resources.
     

  • Alteration in food webs.

The proposed pipeline route would pass through critical habitats of the two species that have very high conservation significance.

i. The dense scrub jungle near Rapar Gadhwali and the desert thorn scrub habitats of Samosara village supports a small population of Indian Grey Wolf.

ii. The grasslands with desert thorn scrub vegetation interspersed with agricultural fields provide extensive feeding and breeding grounds for the Great Indian Bustard population of Kachchh region.

4.1.1 Impacts on Indian Grey Wolf and its Habitat

The following are the specific project related activities and their direct impacts on the ecology and biology of wolf.

  • Removal of vegetal cover would be a direct threat to shelter requirements, denning sites, and breeding populations of the Indian Grey Wolf.
     

  • Disturbances associated with increased movements of vehicles for transportation of equipment and material and influx of people are likely to impact upon the habitat utilization by the wolf. Probabilities of habitat abandonment by the wolves can not be ruled out under these circumstances.
     

  • Construction of storage facilities and location of camping sites in these scrublands would directly lead to further reduction in the available habitat.
     

  • Indirect impacts of the project can also be realised in the increased incidence of poaching, accidental mortality and habitat destruction of prey species of wolf.

4.1.2 Impacts on Great Indian Bustard and its Habitat

The following are the specific project related impacts on the ecology and biology of Great Indian Bustard that can be associated with the project activities during various phases of the project.

  • The Great Indian Bustard is largely a terrestrial bird and all its activity occur on the ground. It's roosting sites although not fixed are generally in open areas near their foraging grounds. Removal of vegetal cover would be a direct impact on bird's roosting sites.
     

  • Bustards generally lay one, rarely two eggs that are laid on the bare grounds. Destruction of eggs by removal of vegetal cover and by vehicular movements in areas in close proximity of its nesting sites would be a direct impact on the reproductive biology of the species.
     

  • Adequate vegetal cover is essential for about two and a half month till the chicks are able to fly. Removal of vegetal cover during these critical months would be again a major impact on the bustard population.
     

  • Great Indian Bustard is a highly territorial species. Disturbances associated with all project activities are likely to impact upon the territory size of the bustards.
     

The project related impacts on Houbara bustards are less pronounced as this is a non resident species in India.

4.1.3 Impacts on other wildlife species
Impacts of project activities on ecology of the ungulates (Chinkara and Nilgai), Carnivores (Desert cat, Caracal, Hyaena and Jackal) and reptiles have also been recognised during the assessment. Anticipated habitat destruction is a major ecological impact of this project on these species. Species like caracal and desert cat are highly endangered. Since their occurrence in other areas is also not widespread, these habitats are extremely important for these species.

4.2 SIGNIFICANCE OF PREDICTED IMPACTS
The significance and magnitude or scale of ecological impacts needs to be well understood prior, recognising these as critical constraints that can influence the decisions on the implementation of the proposed project. It is therefore imperative to consider some significance factors that would allow an assessment of conservation value of impacted habitats and species. Fragility of ecosystems, restoration potential and conservation status are being considered to be adequate criteria for determining the conservation significance of wildlife habitats en route the proposed Oman - India Gas Pipeline route.

The deserts are naturally fragile ecosystems and their full biological richness rapidly declines at the slightest disturbance both man made and natural. It is for this reason several desert areas stand modified today by the developmental activities.

The restorative potential of chunks of degraded dense scrub jungle near the landfall point and open scrub jungle in the ravines and the grasslands en route the pipeline is already on a decline. Further alteration in their structure and functions will only reduce their productivity and hamper their natural restoration.

The Indian Grey Wolf is highly endangered species on Schedule - I of Indian Wildlife Act, according to Wildlife (Protection) Act, 1972. It is also on Appendix - I of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Flora and Fauna (CITES) (Saharia, 1981; Tikader, 1983). All project induced impacts on wolves are therefore considered to be significant. Conservation of all wolf habitats is critical for maintaining the contiguity of its distribution ranges in different states of the country. In Gujarat, Kachchh is one of the districts in which the future of wolves is recognised (Jhala and Giles, 1991). This is due to its low human population density and the presence of large pastoral community that raises sheep, goats and camels. These facts place greater emphasis on the protection of wolf habitats en route the project.

The Great Indian Bustard is also a highly endangered species that has been offered protection under the Wildlife (Protection) Act, 1972. Its shrinking habitats and declining numbers is already reflecting the inadequacy of efforts to conserve it in its natural habitats within the protected areas that have been set aside for protecting this species. All project induced impacts on Great Indian Bustard and its habitat are therefore considered significant. Attempts to protect the bustard habitats in the state of Gujarat as such have been very few inspite of the fact that biotic disturbances in the regions of Kachchh are lower on account of low human population. Protection of natural populations of the bird surviving in the tracts en route or along the pipeline is therefore essential for survival of the resident species of bustard.